At the end of May European Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas orchestrated an EU "Green Week", the key argument of which was a demand the rest of the world follow Europe's world leadership on climate change. The weeklong exhibition of scary tales included lots of typical rhetoric, flourished by children's artwork projecting their fears about catastrophic man-made climate change instilled by the environmental pressure groups. Such displays have actually become a ritual prop in most campaigns by such pressure groups, the ranks of whom it is fair to now consider the Commission as having joined (not to mention how it funds most others to promote such claims of a dark future).
An increasingly disturbing element of Europe's escalating hectoring of (some of) the rest of the world to "come to grips with climate change", in Dimas' words, is that Europe itself is not complying with the Kyoto Protocol. Take out "one off" political decisions by the UK and Germany, respectively, of switching from coal to gas (a Thatcher swipe at the unions) and closing inefficient eastern capacity -- both of which preceeded and are completely unrelated to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol -- and Europe projects it will violate this treaty by 24% per year. Other projections, from sources other than Brussels, are not nearly so forgiving.
Here are the specifics, which are important not only to guage the EU's invocation of Kyoto in every dispute with the US, from Iraq to the WTO. They are also important to bear in mind as the next generation considers the debts they are being saddled with by the current political establishment, which as a bloc remains willing to say most anything in order to avoid addressing not just scientific and policy doubts, but overwhelming evidence of the Kyoto regime's failure and impossibility. In fact, today's stagnant European economies might be viewed as the "salad days" should the EU ever actually proced with this program, including a "second round" of deeper, even more economically damaging cuts the EU is touting in the ongoing Kyoto talks.
Mr. Dimas continues to tell audiences -- now including American audiences -- a tale that has already proven spectacularly false back home: Kyoto can be complied with and without great cost. The specifics should surprise those familiar with Europe's righteous claims of a United States grossly out of step with the Kyoto-compliant world. In fact, Europe's failure to comply with Kyoto will soon create significant internal EU political tension to match that with the US.
Under Kyoto, the EU-15 committed to collectively reduce "greenhouse gas" emissions to 8% below 1990 levels. Internally, however, a deal was struck under which many EU countries were permitted emission increases. These would presumably be covered by over-complying states Great Britain and Germany which assumed their aforementioned, earlier decisions would accomplish more than they have. This is Brussels's vaunted "burden sharing agreement." (http://www.climnet.org/resources/euburden.htm). In the event of failure, this pact in no way voids each country's promise made in Kyoto.
And failure is precisely what Europe faces. The UK and Germany have since made clear they will not carry the rest of the EU-15 over the finish line of compliance. As such, regardless of any country's promise to Brussels, under the treaty each and every among the EU-15 are thus stuck with an 8%-below-1990 commitment. Therefore, 12 of the EU-15 project egregious violation (by 20% up to 66%) of a treaty invoked by many in the EU to demonstrate U.S. irresponsibility.
Consider the following projections for 2010 by Member countries, as reported to Brussels, in relation to their now-operative Kyoto "Article 4" commitment of 8% below 1990: Portugal over its promise by 66%, Spain by 61%, Greece by 51%, Ireland 41% over, Luxembourg by 31%, Finland by 27%, Denmark 26%, Italy by anywhere from 13-23% (following Italy's submission, the numbers discussed suddenly got even worse), France 19%, Austria 18%, Belgium by 16%, and the Netherlands over by 12% (http://reports.eea.eu.int/technical_ report_2004_7/en).
Brussels masks these reported figures by clever rhetoric that does not withstand scrutiny or crunching the numbers that Member States publicly submit, if with little fanfare. In early May, Spain became only the second EU country to (grudgingly) admit it will not comply. These are not mere technicalities, but the reality behind much of the EU's anti-US rhetoric, and the stuff of political problems as talks presumptuously turn to a "second phase" of cuts. This is also why Italy has refused to consider the inane, operative EU posture of "Now that we have broken one promise, it is time to break an even bigger one!"
Europe's flagrant lack of adherence to Kyoto is wildly belied by the remarkable rhetoric aimed by official Europe at the United States. The EU claims the mantle of "leadership" on Kyoto while finding no apparent shame in the fact that the "rogue" US, using the same baseline, would be tied with Ireland in the bottom half of the EU, at 41% over. Canada, by the way, projects violation by 56%.
These facts should roil a debate dominated by scolding the US for being so grossly out of step with the rest of the world, acting alone - with 155 others - by refusing to make an unrealistic promise. In fact, the EU can no longer credibly blame the US about the current state of Kyoto. Already, as the Swedish think tank Timbro has demonstrated, "If the European Union were a state in the USA it would belong to the poorest group of states. France, Italy, Great Britain and Germany have lower GDP per capita than all but four of the states in the United States." (http://www.timbro.com/euvsusa/) Should EU's political classes not break free from political pressures and speak truth to the real power -- green prerssure groups -- Europe's economies are destined for permanent free-fall. The question now is whether the EU will accept Kyoto's failure, and its own, and accept a more practical rethinking of the issue for the future. If not, it only has itself to blame.
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